sellers market

From: Uncle Roger <sinasohn_at_ricochet.net>
Date: Wed Mar 24 12:44:44 1999

At 05:15 PM 3/19/99 -0800, you wrote:

>Yes, an open market WITH MECHANISMS IN PLACE TO ENCOURAGE THE RAMPANT
>ESCALATION OF PRICES BEYOND ANY REASONABLE ASSUMPTION OF "FAIR MARKET
>VALUE"! Look me straight in the eye and tell me that you think the way
>ebay structures its service does not lead to unreasonable price

Are you referring to something eBay does specifically, or to auctions in
general? If the latter, you need to go a little further back in history
than eBay to place blame.

>The price an idiot decides to pay for a certain something does not and
>should not define what the rest of us should have to pay!

No, but it does define what an opportunist can expect other idiots to pay.
And until there are no more idiots, there will always be opportunists
waiting in line to separate them from their money.

>Without ebay, do you honestly think that people would be regularly paying
>$3,000 for Altairs and IMSAIs? Of course not! Take ebay, remove their
>silly auction mechanisms, replace them with a basic best-offer paradigm

Sure they would, but they would be doing it through small ads in the back
of InfoWorld, Wall Street Journal, The New Yorker, etc. And instead of
ending up in the hands of someone like Alex (no offense, Alex!) who
actually knows what they are and will preserve them, if not actually use
them, they would end up on Mrs. Rittenhouse's coffee table being used as a
magazine rack.

If you don't believe me, take a look in the back of the NYer, Smithsonian,
etc. and you'll see all kinds of artifacts listed for sale as decorative
items. (Things like carousel horses, radios, old sewing machines, gas
station pumps, etc.)

>Appreciate sure, but based on rational, measurable attributes. But to be

Everything appreciates in value *solely* based on the quantity available,
number of people who want it, and the ability of the current owner to
contact as many of the potential market as possible. If I've got the only
fliggleblaster in the world, and there are 200 people who want one, the
value will go up *if* I can get in touch with those 200 people. If
instead, I look at my fliggleblaster and think "Geez, look at this old
P.O.S., nobody would ever want this" and stick it back on the shelf, its
value is nil. Likewise, if I post it on eBay, and exactly 0 people in the
world want one, it won't sell for even a cent. But, when you can get in
touch with buyers, and they're actually interested, then your value goes
up. The more buyers, the more uncommon the item, the higher the price.
That's why auctions have been around for centuries.

All eBay does is put sellers in touch with potential buyers. (And yes,
people know the word "Altair", but that simply affects the number of people
interested; it's not eBay's fault.)

>There is hoarding going on by individuals hoping to cash in years from now
>when they expect this ridiculous craze to hit a fevered pitch. At the
>rate we're going, if this keeps up then nobody will be able to afford
>anything older than 1990, and that will be a god damn shame.

There was a guy (whose name escapes me at the moment) who advertised in all
the papers that he would pay an exorbitant amount of money for a particular
coin (and yes, I should know the details). No one ever found one; he knew
that all 5 examples were already accounted for. But, it got people looking
at their pocket change, and offering him other old/interesting coins. He
built quite a business out of it too.

And I know a number of people who regularly take trips to Mexico, the
Philippines, etc. looking for antiques that they buy dirt cheap, bring back
to the states, and sell for outrageous prices to collectors and decorators.

As long as there are idiots out there... All you can do is kill all the
stupid people. (Or, kill all the greedy people, but they reproduce faster
than you can make bullets. Hmmm... For that matter, stupid people
reproduce even faster. Sorry.)

>them). But when people realize that there is an alternative, they may
>forsake ebay altogether in preference to a more sane environment like a
>buy/sell/trade board. You WILL build a loyal following eventually and you

You will build a loyal following of eBay sellers who buy stuff cheap from
you and sell it for $$$ on eBay. Duh. Sure, sell me an Altair for $50,
and watch me fidget and squirm as I try not to parlay that into a new
bathroom because of "principles".

>That's a silly statement. Of course you see no alternatives because no
>one yet has dared tried to build one. Instead of being discouraging, its

Um, actually, there is an alternative, and Marvin has mentioned it once or
twice. Build a reputation and those that are not simply after $$$ will
give their computers to you. There's nothing you can do about the guy who
wants $10K for his vic-20 and not a penny less, but the guy who wants his
beloved Sharp PC-5000 to have a good home may just send it to you for the
cost of shipping.

As for collector-to-collector trades, there is a medium for that as well,
and you're looking at it.

>Ebay has done nothing but to cut out the footwork for the lazy people,
>and charge them a premium for it.

Ta-da! And there you have it. The secret of getting rich.



--------------------------------------------------------------------- O-

Uncle Roger "There is pleasure pure in being mad
roger_at_sinasohn.com that none but madmen know."
Roger Louis Sinasohn & Associates
San Francisco, California http://www.sinasohn.com/
Received on Wed Mar 24 1999 - 12:44:44 GMT

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