Computer Market Phases (Was: Our fine educational system (was : Login on VMS))

From: Jerome Fine <jhfine_at_idirect.com>
Date: Thu Sep 28 15:39:54 2000

>Douglas Quebbeman wrote:

> > > Not really computers IMHO (no flames please). These systems were
> > > wired up with patch cables to perform specific calculations, then
> > > rewired for the next. Although the patch cables can be considered
> > > a form of 'stored program', it's just not the same.

Jerome Fine replies:

I agree that the 711 and 716 referred to below had the patch cables,
but also as referred to below, the IBM 650 which arrived around
1955 (if I remember correctly) was a full blown computer.

> > Hmmm! Seems like I remember something about punched card input to tube
> > type computers in that era. Wouldn't that qualify?
> Yup... the IBM Model 650 Calculator was a card-fed machine. Tube & relay-
> based, it came with the model 711 card reader and model 716 line printer
> (which I once owned and wish I hadn't stripped for recycling 10 years ago).

Since the IBM 650 had over 20 KByes of memory (yes I know it was on a
drum, but it was still there) along with solid state memory of between 200 and
600 bytes, I really do think it qualified as a full blown computer - even though
the 20 KBytes of memory (actually 2000 * 10 decimal digit values) was on a
drum. And the I/O was mostly ONLY punch cards. The version of the
IBM 650 (sort of dates me - doesn't it) I worked with also had 3 tape drives.

I realize that the CPU was probably slower than a present day calculator.
But for insurance companies, it was still far faster than a 711 and a card
sorter and that 716 printer - especially the models with the tape drives.

The key aspect that drove the computer revolution was that accounting
with even the IBM 650 was far faster than a whole room full of clerks.
IBM justified the price of each such computer based on how much it
would save the customer rather than how much it cost to make the
computer. That computer market held for a long time and the companies
that made computers had no trouble making a profit.

But I am really after what the market MIGHT be like in 2010? In
industrial countries, will the use of the computer be as necessary
as the telephone - indeed will most (all?) phone conversations take
place via a computer via the internet? Will the internet become
as widespread as phones are now? Might almost everyone have
their own cell phone and land lines kept only as an older system?
When will the last x86 instruction set chip be made?

On a different note, might the use of cash (folding money) become
so rare that only the criminal element would require this mode
of exchange. If so, it might become more reasonable to ask
the law abiding folk to give up a bit of their privacy, as well as
the underground economy, and thereby be able to curb corruption.
Since so much of the legal economy is already based on plastic
and the internet (I hear that in Canada, cheques are way down
and the Interact is the most popular way of buying groceries)
which becomes not only safer for the buyer but many fewer
bad cheques for the vendor.

Eliminating cash would be a fundamental change to society.
But the internet might make that possible. I don't think that
this type of speculation was included in Market Phases, but
perhaps. More OT I guess.

Sincerely yours,

Jerome Fine
Received on Thu Sep 28 2000 - 15:39:54 BST