Hard year

From: Wayne M. Smith <wmsmith_at_earthlink.net>
Date: Fri Sep 27 23:54:00 2002

> > --- Chandra Bajpai <cbajpai_at_attbi.com> wrote:
> > I am amazed that some people can drop that
> > > much cash in this
> > > economy.
> > >
> > > I also observed that the supply has not gone up...I
> > > would expect more
> > > systems on the market as people would sell their
> > > "luxuries" to raise
> > > cash. I just haven't seen it. Any one agree?
> > >
> > I don't. The recession is not that serious for this to
> > happen, median household income declined 2.2% last
> > year, and unemployment went up 1%, that tells me the
> > overwhelming majority of collectors still have their
> > jobs and adequate income to collect.
>
> These numbers don't sound too serious, until you realize
> the nature of this unemployment (many highly-skilled,
> college-educated workers) vs. the employment (retail,
> minimum-wage, or low-wage jobs.) I know several
> qualified engineers working far below their ability.
> They're being counted as employed, but at a far lower
> salary, doing something they're overqualified for.
>
> Also, unemployment is grossly under-reported.
> There are lots of people who are out of work long enough
> now, that they're not being counted as unemployed anymore,
> due to some trickery enacted back in the 80s to make
> recessions seem less severe.
>
I suspect that, in general, people on this list have been hit more severely due
to the huge contraction in the IT business. This would probably be the case to
some extent even if the rest of the economy was healthy.

You can define unemployment many different ways. There was an investigative
piece recently in the New York Times (I believe) that noted that people who are
considered "disabled" are not counted as unemployed. It also turns out that
about 40% or so of low-skill workers who lose their jobs, and are unable to find
new work, eventually claim to be disabled. This has been a huge trend in the
last decade, and when the increases in those claiming disability are backed out
of the employment figures, it turns out that there was actually almost no
employment growth at all during the 1990s, and that the waves of people
presently claiming disability is masking a fairly steep employment decline.
This year in California the governer signed legislation shifting the burden to
the employer/state to prove that an employee claiming disability is actually not
disabled, meaning (in the great tradition of soft-tissue injury claims) that
more people will be deemed disabled. Ironically, one of the effects of this
legislation will be to reduce unemployment.

Whatever the condition of the economy, it isn't depressing the prices of classic
stuff on eBay. I haven't bought much at all on eBay this year -- and it's only
because I am getting outbid on almost everything -- even sniping doesn't work
anymore! Prices in prior years have dropped dramatically during the summer, but
not this year.

-W
Received on Fri Sep 27 2002 - 23:54:00 BST