Computer Market Phases (Was: Our fine educational system (was: Login on VMS))

From: Jerome Fine <jhfine_at_idirect.com>
Date: Wed Sep 27 08:23:08 2000

>ajp166 wrote:

> >"There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their
> >home."
> > -- Ken Olson, President of DEC, World Future Society
> > Convention, 1977
> In one sense he was right but the desktop and killer apps
> like spreadsheets and user friendly databases were phase
> one and new. It took more than that to get the kitchen
> computer real. The internet or more correctly the ubiqious
> communications it represents was phase two.

Jerome Fine replies:

I also seem to remember an article in Professional or one of the
other rags (somewhere around 1985) in which Ken Olsen stated
that DEC should become a "Software ONLY" company. Perhaps
the real problem was that KO/DEC could not adapt to the
changing market as the market went through its different phases.

I think that it would be helpful to have a discussion on the different
phases of the "computer" market with a view to identifying the
characteristics to be expected for the next phase. Based on
40 years of seeing the market charge, I have a bit of perspective,
but I am probably so out of touch with the current market that
I don't have the needed insight to identify the next phase. So, how
about some comments?

Phase I - Characterized by very high hardware costs for tube type
computers and a total lack of operating systems - up to about 1960?
Dominated by IBM

Phase II - Characterized by the first introduction of transistors,
many more small companies along with the emergence of Snow
White (IBM) and the Seven Dwarfs (Burroughs, DEC, UNIVAC,
CDC, Wang, ?, ?). Some operating systems started to emerge -
up to about 1975 - Still dominated by IBM

Phase III - Characterized by the start of LSI. Hardware costs were
still high and operating systems were mostly bundled. Volume was
still low in most cases - up to about 1985 - IBM was still the major
player, but no longer so dominant

Phase IV - Here I start to become less able to see the market. I know
that M$ started to become important along with Intel. In addition,
the internet was just starting to become useful and wide spread although
nowhere near the 2000 situation. The marketing model was about to
shift from low volume/high mark-up to high volume/low mark-up as
MS-DOS started to penetrate and the PC stated to become a
commodity item. IBM become less important. Can someone else
help to define this Phase IV? - up to about 1993???????

Phase V - The internet starts to become very important. Linux
becomes available. How do these two aspect interrelate? What
are the dominant features of Phase V? Will Phase V continue
for a few more years?

Phase VI - Here is the key aspect of why I am sending this email!!
Is it possible by looking at the past 50 years to identify the key
characteristics of Phase VI (which are probably already present)
which will take us up to 2010? Notice that I think that the number
of years in a given Phase seems to decrease. Is that correct?
If possible, the goal of this discussion would be to achieve some
sort of overall agreement on the different past phases (not really
too important) and some sort of forecast on what the next phase(s)
will consist of. If even the probable characteristics of the next
phase can be identified, that would seem to be a major achievement.

I suspect that while this topic is probably OT, it is also a rather
interesting question and for most list members could be considered
vital for the future.

Somehow, when I read the comment that Allison made, I started to
think about these aspects and I began to wonder just what might
be in store. Being stuck (by choice) in RT-11 and the PDP-11
does not provide a reasonable viewpoint, but I suspect that the
younger members of this list might benefit from a bit of hindsight
and the older members could be helped by the younger members
in being able to identify future trends. Does this make any sense?

Sincerely yours,

Jerome Fine
Received on Wed Sep 27 2000 - 08:23:08 BST