Hello Jerome
On 27-Sep-00, you wrote:
Jerome Fine replies:
>
> I also seem to remember an article . . . . So, how
> about some comments?
<<snip>>
>
> Phase IV - Here I start to become less able to see the market. I know
> that M$ started to become important along with Intel. In addition,
> the internet was just starting to become useful and wide spread although
> nowhere near the 2000 situation. The marketing model was about to
> shift from low volume/high mark-up to high volume/low mark-up as
> MS-DOS started to penetrate and the PC stated to become a
> commodity item. IBM become less important. Can someone else
> help to define this Phase IV? - up to about 1993???????
CP/M, the first widely accepted o/s, disappears as IBM speaketh from on
high, and gives the nod to MS-DOS.
Apple. And the clone wars, such as Apple vs. Franklin, and the PC clones.
The market was trying to get away from one or two major players.
And then the advent of Atari and Commodore, making microcomputers affordable
to the masses.
Graphic o/s became the dominant theme, started by Macintosh and Amiga, and
later picked up by Billy Gates & company. Microsoft reverses the
diversification trend and becomes the de facto industry standard.
>
> Phase V - The internet starts to become very important. Linux
> becomes available. How do these two aspect interrelate? What
> are the dominant features of Phase V? Will Phase V continue
> for a few more years?
We see microprocessors in virtually everything, from PalmPilots to cars to
microwave ovens.
>
> Phase VI - Here is the key aspect of why I am sending this email!!
> Is it possible by looking at the past 50 years to identify the key
> characteristics of Phase VI (which are probably already present)
> which will take us up to 2010? Notice that I think that the number
> of years in a given Phase seems to decrease. Is that correct?
> If possible, the goal of this discussion would be to achieve some
> sort of overall agreement on the different past phases (not really
> too important) and some sort of forecast on what the next phase(s)
> will consist of. If even the probable characteristics of the next
> phase can be identified, that would seem to be a major achievement.
I see the loss of Microsoft as the industry leader, because of the
anti-trust breakup. Linux and other *nix like o/s will dominate the Third
world because of one factor -- cost. Eventually the two philosophies will
merge, and software will have to be made to run under either system, or any
other system, such as Mac OS?? The same as the fact there are many car
manufacturers, but they all use the 4 cycle gasoline engine with few
exceptions.
The internet will make print advertising almost non-existent. E-mail will
replace the Post Office as a standard means of communication. Cable TV will
be delivered via digital fiber hookups to every home, and the microcomputer
will become Joe Sixpack's eye on the world. From telephone, television,
security, to e-commerce. Everyone will have network interfacing standard in
the home, like electrical and phone wiring is now.
And people will have to give up more and more of their privacy and
independence to accomplish this. Many already rely 100% on the
software/hardware to do their creative thinking for them. Computers can
play brilliant chess games but can't write symphonies or create works of
art.
The sad part is that electronic data, unlike books, can be easily changed,
as there is a self limiting source. Books are safest (because of the sheer
numbers involved) from tampering. and they are low tech, thanks to
Gutenberg.
The "number of the beast" from Revelation may very well be your internet
address. I'm writing a sci-fi novel on this theme called "Numbers".
>
>
Regards
--
Gary Hildebrand
Box 6184
St. Joseph, MO 64506-0184
816-662-2612
or
ghldbrd_at_ccp.com
Received on Wed Sep 27 2000 - 16:12:05 BST