Newsweek mentions VCFe and Sellam

From: Hans Franke <Hans.Franke_at_mch20.sbs.de>
Date: Wed Aug 1 04:07:12 2001

> From: "Michael Nadeau" <menadeau_at_mediaone.net>
> I disagree for a few simple reasons: First, there aren't enough systems
> worth the kind of money that would interest an investor/speculator. You need
> to get into a five-figure value range and then have a history of value
> growth over years. The only computer I can think of in that class is the
> Apple I. Investors want to buy a few things for a lot of money that will
> appreciate over time. Otherwise, it's too much work and overhead.

If you think about big crook investors (*1) you're maybe right. But
Investment on a 100USD up to a few thousand is still a thing to
considere. Think about investment in Stamps or old coins. The
situation is (collector/investor wise) quite similar. 90% of
the items collected are of low value, and not very interesting
investor only people. Of the remaining 10% again 9/10th are
only of some worth - none of them as a single unit interesting
as a big investment (but maybe as a collection). Only in the
remaining 1% you'll find units where a single unit may represent
significant value to Joe Average. Now we are talking about sums
of the 4 to 5 digit range. And among all these zillions of various
coins and stanps only a few, a number almost indistinguishable
from Zero got the real big numbers on the price tag.

Similar in Computers: For most units the scrap metal value (what
a scrap dealer will pay) is higher than the collectors value
(what a collector is willing to pay) - as in Coins, where for
most coins the value is around the metal value. And the most
units, where a price higher than this is possible it's in a
low range - and as for Coins/stamps, they are of no value for
investment (*2). Now there come in the few systems where a price
may be obtained, reasonable higher than average: e.g. Chicklet
PET, Altair, SOL, IMSAI, etc. And these are the systems where
investment outside of the hobby scene may take place. As a
last category we have again the exceptional pices like an
Apple 1. In my eyes out of scope for reasonable consideration.

(*1) It shouldbe noted that most forms of art investment are
_not_ going for the few Rembrands or Van Gochs - these are
just the ones who make the news

(*2) If I talk here about Investment I always refer to pure
money orientated and 'chart' driven investment - not Investment
where you'd need some expertise to see a future gain.

> Second, buying computers as an investment is not like collecting, say, art.
> If not cared for, many of the most valuable systems deteriorate over time,
> and with them their value. A speculator would have to invest in maintenance.
> And then there are the storage and transportation issues involved with
> larger systems.

Now here you miss some of the most important factors in art collections.
Just hanging the picture along the wall and waiting for a higher price
is the best way to lower your value. Art work of most kind requires a
constant maintanance and repair. Even more when you think about 'modern'
art forms - 'stuff' made by artists like Beuys or other 'contemporary'
artists require extensive skills. And their 'work' was sold for more
than a few bucks.

> Finally, no infrastructure exists to broker the buying and selling of
> investor-level systems (even if they did exist in number). eBay is really
> just a big yard sale. You don't have the equivalent of a Sotheby's auction
> house or even of a high-end antique dealer. It took decades for this type of
> infrastructure to develop for the antique auto hobby.

Jep, I belive these things will show up during the next 10-15 years.

> As the hobby grows (and it will whether we like it or not), it will attract
> attention from mainstream media and people who think they can make a quick
> buck. (and a buck is about all they will make). The bozos among them will be
> a nuisance, but in the long run greater awareness of the hobby will result
> in more systems being saved.

Agreed.

Ciao
H.

--
VCF Europa 3.0 am 27./28. April 2002 in Muenchen
http://www.vcfe.org/
Received on Wed Aug 01 2001 - 04:07:12 BST

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