Future uncollectable computers...

From: Fred N. van Kempen <waltje_at_pdp11.nl>
Date: Mon Jul 21 03:34:00 2003

On Fri, 18 Jul 2003, Zane H. Healy wrote:

> I don't think this is a valid point. The *average* PC user doesn't do
> incremental Upgrades, just like the average Mac user doesn't.
Indeed; they lack the skills to do so. Which is usually why they call
upon their (more) geeky friends to do that for them.

> Also, how often does the *average* person replace their system? Last
> I checked it's every 3+ years. It's the same for the OS.
Down here, I see people change their hardware at least once every year,
and the really geeky ones even more often. The lost ones are in a
coninuous cycle of upgrade-and-expand, and then, they sell the box
and buy a new one (usually in parts) and start over :)

> You have to remember that computer companies make their money from
> average user, not from the PC users that build their own systems and
> are in a constant upgrade cycle.
Here, we see four markets:

- business user: complete A-brand systems, no upgrades, replacements every
                 2 to 4 years.

- home user: complete systems, either brand (A/B class) or clone. They
             sometimes build their systems from parts, or just ask a
             tech friend to do so for them.

- techie user: get parts, build system. then slowly replace parts to
               go with the (speed/features) flow of the market. sell
               the box eventually, and start over.

- lost geek: same as above, but much shorter cycle.

And then there's also the 'schools' and 'government' user markets- the
schools here usually depend on aftermarket sales (new, but older models
of A/B class brand systems) and sometimes clones, and the government
usually does like the business user market, with a 2 or 3 year cycle,
and buy in bulk from mfcts'.

Companies typically live off the business users (where price is less
important than reliability), with the home-user buying systems being
a good second market (if you have good products.)

The parts stuff is mostly a fair stream of income for parts suppliers,
not as much for the manufacturers, given that the profit margin is
set/maintained by the resellers mostly.

I do see a tendency towards quality, though... in the past, the self-
built home boxes were usually made of cheap parts. Now, I see people
buying the more expensive parts (better brands, or "higher" models of
a part) at the expense of having to sit on it for a while longer.

(example: I see VERY few Realtek cards sold here, as opposed to the
better 3Com and intel-based cards)

Cheers,
        Fred
Received on Mon Jul 21 2003 - 03:34:00 BST